# AI Networking and Optics Data center switches, optical transceivers, InfiniBand, NICs and interconnect chips. Theme: AI (Technology). Page: https://thematiq.io/themes/ai/ai-networking-and-optics/ ## Key facts - **The market: $100bn** Forecast spending on data center switches in AI back-end networks, including scale-up; no base year or CAGR on page read (Dell'Oro Group, 2030) - **Growth: +27%** Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market growth to 2028 (a year) (Dell'Oro Group, to 2028) - **The build: 3** of the 18 parts in the AI Supercycle bill of materials, each traced to the companies that supply it (ThematIQ research) - **The companies: 15** companies worth $955 billion, earning on average 71% of their revenue here (Annual reports and exchange data, 2026-10-28) ## What it holds Listed companies that earn their revenue supplying these parts of the AI Supercycle bill of materials, each read from its own reports. | Part | Covers | |---|---| | Interconnection Interface | infiniband, ethernet switch silicon, optical transceivers, SerDes ip, interconnect ICs | | Network Interface and Controller | NIC controllers | | Networking Equipment | data center switches routers, optical networking equipment | ## Largest companies | Company | Listing | Market value | |---|---|---| | Ciena | CIEN.XNYS | $52 billion | | Celestica | CLS.XNYS | $38 billion | | F5 | FFIV.XNAS | $21 billion | | Fabrinet | FN.XNYS | $13 billion | | Arista Networks | ANET.XNYS | $235 billion | | Lumentum Holdings | LITE.XNAS | $82 billion | | Marvell Technology | MRVL.XNAS | $221 billion | | Shandong Zhongji Electrical Equipment | 300308.SHE | $106 billion | | Eoptolink Technology | 300502.SHE | $38 billion | | Coherent | COHR.XNYS | $47 billion | | Suzhou TFC Optical Communication | 300394.SHE | $23 billion | | Montage Technology | 688008.SHG | $30 billion | | Credo Technology Group Holding | CRDO.XNAS | $33 billion | | Rambus | RMBS.XNAS | $10 billion | | Applied Optoelectronics | AAOI.XNAS | $7 billion | By listing country: United States 72%, China 28%. ## The market - Worldwide optical transceiver sales (page also uses the label transceivers plus related products for the same figure): $24bn (2025), LightCounting - Optical transceiver sales growth from 2024 to 2025 (a year): +48% (2025), LightCounting - Optical transceivers and related products growth from 2024 to 2025; may differ in scope from the 48% figure (a year): +55% (2025), LightCounting - Ethernet optical transceiver sales (stated as close to $18 billion): $18bn (2025), LightCounting - Ethernet optical transceiver sales growth (a year): +70% (2025), LightCounting - Generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers, not only AI: $14bn (2024), MarketsandMarkets - Forecast for generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers, not only AI: $25bn (2029), MarketsandMarkets - Forecast CAGR for generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers (growth, a year): +13% (2024–2029), MarketsandMarkets - AI cluster Ethernet optics; read second-hand from the filing, not from LightCounting's own page: $16bn (2025), LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) - AI cluster Ethernet optics forecast from LightCounting's January 2026 forecast; read second-hand: $26bn (2026), LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) - AI cluster Ethernet optics growth from $16.5 billion in 2025; read second-hand (a year): +60% (2026), LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) - Retimer market; generic vendor estimate, treat with caution: 611.7 USD million (2024), Polaris Market Research - Retimer market growth forecast; generic vendor estimate (a year): +11% (2025–2034), Polaris Market Research - PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chips; generic vendor estimate, roughly fourfold Polaris scope gap: $2.8bn (2025), Dataintelo - Forecast for PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chips; generic vendor estimate: $7.4bn (2033), Dataintelo - PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chip growth forecast; generic vendor estimate (a year): +12% (2025–2033), Dataintelo - Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market, front-end and back-end server connectivity; base year and 2024 value not on the page read: $16bn (2028), Dell'Oro Group - Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market growth to 2028 (a year): +27% (to 2028), Dell'Oro Group - Ethernet data center switch revenue, quarterly record; not an annual total: $8.0bn (3Q 2025), Dell'Oro Group - Forecast spending on data center switches in AI back-end networks, including scale-up; no base year or CAGR on page read: $100bn (2030), Dell'Oro Group - Cumulative Ethernet data center switch spending forecast from a February 2023 forecast; excludes co-packaged optics and predates the AI surge, so outdated: $100bn (2023–2027), Dell'Oro Group The figures cover different parts of the segment with different years, scopes and sources, so they should not be added together. Generic vendor estimates such as Polaris, Dataintelo and MarketsandMarkets diverge widely from specialist trackers like LightCounting and Dell'Oro, and some values are quarterly, cumulative or second-hand. ### What is AI Networking and Optics? Data center switches, optical transceivers, InfiniBand, NICs and interconnect chips. ### What does AI Networking and Optics hold? Listed companies that earn their revenue from the parts it takes to build AI Supercycle: Interconnection Interface, Network Interface and Controller, Networking Equipment. 15 companies as of 2026-10-28. ### What is not in AI Networking and Optics? Standard and RDMA NIC adapters and controllers: Network Interface and Controller, not Networking Equipment; programmable SmartNICs and DPUs with onboard compute cores: Data Processing Unit (DPU), not Network Interface and Controller Pluggable optical transceivers, AOCs, DACs and AECs: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment or Racks and Cable Management; long haul and DCI optical transport systems: Networking Equipment; passive fiber trunks, patch panels and structured cabling: Racks and Cable Management Finished Ethernet and InfiniBand switch systems: Networking Equipment, not Interconnection Interface; merchant switch ASICs and InfiniBand silicon sold as chips: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment ## What it is not - Standard and RDMA NIC adapters and controllers: Network Interface and Controller, not Networking Equipment; programmable SmartNICs and DPUs with onboard compute cores: Data Processing Unit (DPU), not Network Interface and Controller - Pluggable optical transceivers, AOCs, DACs and AECs: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment or Racks and Cable Management; long haul and DCI optical transport systems: Networking Equipment; passive fiber trunks, patch panels and structured cabling: Racks and Cable Management - Finished Ethernet and InfiniBand switch systems: Networking Equipment, not Interconnection Interface; merchant switch ASICs and InfiniBand silicon sold as chips: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment - High speed copper backplanes, scale up cable cartridges and high speed connectors: Interconnection Interface, not Racks and Cable Management - NVLink and other scale up switch chips: Interconnection Interface, not Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) - PCIe and CXL retimers and switches: Motherboard Interface, not Interconnection Interface; Ethernet and optical DSPs and standalone SerDes IP: Interconnection Interface - Custom accelerator design services and IP embedded in AI ASICs: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), not Interconnection Interface; standalone SerDes IP licensing: Interconnection Interface Data as of 2026-10-28. Source: ThematIQ (industry research, company filings, exchange data), ETFIQ (fund counts), and the publishers linked above. Not investment advice.