What it holds
AI Networking and Optics follows the money through the AI bill of materials: the parts it takes to build it, and the companies that earn their revenue supplying them. Each company is read from its own reports, so a holding reflects what it actually sells into the theme, not what it says about it.
| Part | What it covers |
|---|---|
| Interconnection Interface | infiniband, ethernet switch silicon, optical transceivers, SerDes ip, interconnect ICs |
| Network Interface and Controller | NIC controllers |
| Networking Equipment | data center switches routers, optical networking equipment |
How it breaks down
- United States72%
- China28%
- Mega cap (over $200bn)16%
- Large cap ($10bn to $200bn)80%
- Mid cap ($2bn to $10bn)4%
Shares of the strategy as of the data date.
Largest companies
| Company | Listing | Market value |
|---|---|---|
| Ciena | CIEN.XNYS | $52 billion |
| Celestica | CLS.XNYS | $38 billion |
| F5 | FFIV.XNAS | $21 billion |
| Fabrinet | FN.XNYS | $13 billion |
| Arista Networks | ANET.XNYS | $235 billion |
| Lumentum Holdings | LITE.XNAS | $82 billion |
| Marvell Technology | MRVL.XNAS | $221 billion |
| Shandong Zhongji Electrical Equipment | 300308.SHE | $106 billion |
| Eoptolink Technology | 300502.SHE | $38 billion |
| Coherent | COHR.XNYS | $47 billion |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication | 300394.SHE | $23 billion |
| Montage Technology | 688008.SHG | $30 billion |
| Credo Technology Group Holding | CRDO.XNAS | $33 billion |
| Rambus | RMBS.XNAS | $10 billion |
| Applied Optoelectronics | AAOI.XNAS | $7 billion |
The market
Forecast spending on data center switches in AI back-end networks, including scale-up; no base year or CAGR on page read
Dell'Oro Group, 2030Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market growth to 2028 (a year)
Dell'Oro Group, to 2028AI cluster Ethernet optics forecast from LightCounting's January 2026 forecast; read second-hand
LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F), 2026Forecast for generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers, not only AI
MarketsandMarkets, 2029The figures cover different parts of the segment with different years, scopes and sources, so they should not be added together. Generic vendor estimates such as Polaris, Dataintelo and MarketsandMarkets diverge widely from specialist trackers like LightCounting and Dell'Oro, and some values are quarterly, cumulative or second-hand.
All 21 published estimates, with sources
| What it measures | Figure | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast CAGR for generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers (growth, a year) | +13% | 2024–2029 | MarketsandMarkets |
| Forecast for generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers, not only AI | $25bn | 2029 | MarketsandMarkets |
| Generic optical transceiver market covering all transceivers, not only AI | $14bn | 2024 | MarketsandMarkets |
| AI cluster Ethernet optics forecast from LightCounting's January 2026 forecast; read second-hand | $26bn | 2026 | LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) |
| AI cluster Ethernet optics growth from $16.5 billion in 2025; read second-hand (a year) | +60% | 2026 | LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) |
| AI cluster Ethernet optics; read second-hand from the filing, not from LightCounting's own page | $16bn | 2025 | LightCounting (cited in a company 20-F) |
| Cumulative Ethernet data center switch spending forecast from a February 2023 forecast; excludes co-packaged optics and predates the AI surge, so outdated | $100bn | 2023–2027 | Dell'Oro Group |
| Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market growth to 2028 (a year) | +27% | to 2028 | Dell'Oro Group |
| Ethernet adapter and Smart NIC market, front-end and back-end server connectivity; base year and 2024 value not on the page read | $16bn | 2028 | Dell'Oro Group |
| Ethernet data center switch revenue, quarterly record; not an annual total | $8.0bn | 3Q 2025 | Dell'Oro Group |
| Ethernet optical transceiver sales (stated as close to $18 billion) | $18bn | 2025 | LightCounting |
| Ethernet optical transceiver sales growth (a year) | +70% | 2025 | LightCounting |
| Forecast for PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chips; generic vendor estimate | $7.4bn | 2033 | Dataintelo |
| Forecast spending on data center switches in AI back-end networks, including scale-up; no base year or CAGR on page read | $100bn | 2030 | Dell'Oro Group |
| Optical transceiver sales growth from 2024 to 2025 (a year) | +48% | 2025 | LightCounting |
| Optical transceivers and related products growth from 2024 to 2025; may differ in scope from the 48% figure (a year) | +55% | 2025 | LightCounting |
| PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chip growth forecast; generic vendor estimate (a year) | +12% | 2025–2033 | Dataintelo |
| PCIe 4.0 and 5.0 retimer chips; generic vendor estimate, roughly fourfold Polaris scope gap | $2.8bn | 2025 | Dataintelo |
| Retimer market growth forecast; generic vendor estimate (a year) | +11% | 2025–2034 | Polaris Market Research |
| Retimer market; generic vendor estimate, treat with caution | 611.7 USD million | 2024 | Polaris Market Research |
| Worldwide optical transceiver sales (page also uses the label transceivers plus related products for the same figure) | $24bn | 2025 | LightCounting |
Questions
- What is AI Networking and Optics?
- Data center switches, optical transceivers, InfiniBand, NICs and interconnect chips.
- What does AI Networking and Optics hold?
- Listed companies that earn their revenue from the parts it takes to build AI Supercycle: Interconnection Interface, Network Interface and Controller, Networking Equipment. 15 companies as of 2026-10-28.
- What is not in AI Networking and Optics?
- Standard and RDMA NIC adapters and controllers: Network Interface and Controller, not Networking Equipment; programmable SmartNICs and DPUs with onboard compute cores: Data Processing Unit (DPU), not Network Interface and Controller Pluggable optical transceivers, AOCs, DACs and AECs: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment or Racks and Cable Management; long haul and DCI optical transport systems: Networking Equipment; passive fiber trunks, patch panels and structured cabling: Racks and Cable Management Finished Ethernet and InfiniBand switch systems: Networking Equipment, not Interconnection Interface; merchant switch ASICs and InfiniBand silicon sold as chips: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment
Sources
Every part of the bill of materials is researched from published industry sources, and every company from its own annual reports and exchange data. Nothing is estimated that cannot be sourced.
Industry research: ai-stack.us/products/2-248-nvidia-connectx-8-supernic-900-9x · convergedigest.com/delloro-ai-back-end-switch-market-to-near · docs.nvidia.com/enterprise-reference-architectures/nvl72-ai- · fourweekmba.com/nvidia-compute-revenue/ · newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/co-packaged-optics-cpo-book-sc · qsfpdd800g.com/blogs/artical/1-6t-800g-osfp224-optical-trans · 100gmodules.com/info/1-6t-optical-transceiver-suits-high-cap · bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1830387-REG/nvidia_900_9d3b6_00cv · datacenterfrontier.com/machine-learning/podcast/55394057/ai- · datagravity.dev/p/how-much-does-an-nvidia-nvl72-cost · fibermall.com/blog/how-many-optical-transceivers-needed-for- · investing.com/news/stock-market-news/how-much-does-a-gw-of-d · investing.com/news/technology-news/what-it-costs-to-deploy-1 · itcreations.com/product/153021 · itiger.com/news/1113387068 · naddod.com/blog/in-depth-analysis-of-the-differences-between · naddod.com/collections/nvidia-networking/connectx-8 · naddod.com/products/nvidia-networking/102722 · naddod.com/products/nvidia-networking/102748 · pcnation.com/nvidia-900-9x81e-00ex-st0-pna10mgzl
What it is not
Where an item could belong to two parts, these rules decide which owns it; items outside every part are not counted.
- Standard and RDMA NIC adapters and controllers: Network Interface and Controller, not Networking Equipment; programmable SmartNICs and DPUs with onboard compute cores: Data Processing Unit (DPU), not Network Interface and Controller
- Pluggable optical transceivers, AOCs, DACs and AECs: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment or Racks and Cable Management; long haul and DCI optical transport systems: Networking Equipment; passive fiber trunks, patch panels and structured cabling: Racks and Cable Management
- Finished Ethernet and InfiniBand switch systems: Networking Equipment, not Interconnection Interface; merchant switch ASICs and InfiniBand silicon sold as chips: Interconnection Interface, not Networking Equipment
- High speed copper backplanes, scale up cable cartridges and high speed connectors: Interconnection Interface, not Racks and Cable Management
- NVLink and other scale up switch chips: Interconnection Interface, not Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)
- PCIe and CXL retimers and switches: Motherboard Interface, not Interconnection Interface; Ethernet and optical DSPs and standalone SerDes IP: Interconnection Interface
- Custom accelerator design services and IP embedded in AI ASICs: Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), not Interconnection Interface; standalone SerDes IP licensing: Interconnection Interface
Not investment advice. Figures are dated and sourced; ThematIQ does not estimate figures it cannot source.